Petroleum

Accounting for Biodiesel

April 22, 2009 -- Methyl Esters? No, it is not the name of the lead in a John Waters film, or of some gun-toting moll from 1940’s film noir. Methyl esters are more commonly known as biodiesel, a biomass-based fuel that is made from vegetable oils or animal fats. Biodiesel can be used in pure form (B100) or may be blended with petroleum diesel. Biodiesel and blends can be used in most modern diesel engines or burned as heating fuel.    » read more »

April 15, 2009 -- Yesterday, EIA released the April 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), that includes a detailed look at the forecast for transportation fuels during the upcoming summer. This summer driving season, defined as the period between April 1 and September 30, is expected to be very different from last year. Regular-grade motor gasoline retail prices are projected to average $2.23 per gallon this summer, down from $3.81 per gallon last summer.    » read more »

All Eyes on OPEC

Recently, EIA and other oil market forecasters have been paying close attention to how the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is adjusting to lower global oil demand and weaker oil prices brought on by the global economic recession. Crude oil prices are now almost $100 per barrel off their peak level last year, and most forecasters, including EIA, are projecting 2009 global oil demand to be over 1 million barrels per day (bbl/d) lower than in 2008.    » read more »

March 18, 2009 -- The production of non-crude liquids has traditionally been under-appreciated and sometimes even ignored, much like the treatment accorded to a utility infielder who sits on the bench as the superstar who plays third base and bats cleanup receives all of the attention. However, when that third baseman suffers a season-ending injury, the forgotten utility infielder immediately comes to the forefront. With crude oil (the superstar of the liquid fuels market) ailing, non-crude oil liquids have emerged into the limelight as an important component of world oil supply growth.    » read more »

March 11, 2009 -- A lot has changed over the last several months, here in Washington with the new Administration, and across the U.S. and the rest of the world as economic conditions continue to deteriorate. It has been the latter change that has impacted EIA’s short-term global oil market forecast. In the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), just released yesterday, EIA is projecting 2009 global oil demand to be 3 million barrels per day lower than we projected as recently as six months ago, in our September 2008 STEO. Why have we changed our view of 2009 so dramatically in such a short time?    » read more »

The Bakken Formation Helps Increase U.S. Proved Reserves of Oil

This Week In Petroleum for January 28, 2009 noted that North Dakota had the Nation’s third largest increase in proved reserves of crude oil in 2007, 70 million barrels (17 percent). Most of this increase came from development of the Bakken Formation. What is the Bakken Formation and why does it matter?

What is the Bakken Formation?    » read more »

Are Gasoline and Crude Oil Price Patterns Actually Diverging?

Recently, we at EIA have received many inquiries about why gasoline retail prices have been rising compared to the New York Mercantile Exchange’s (NYMEX’s) reported price of crude oil. The national media have also run several prominent stories on this divergence in prices. In particular, EIA’s reported average retail price of regular gasoline in the United States rose from $1.61 to $1.96 between December 29th and February 16th. During the same period, NYMEX’s most reported price for crude oil was volatile, but had no clear upward trend. So what’s going on?    » read more »

Groundhog Economics: Will Punxsutawney Phil Cost You Money?

We celebrate Groundhog Day in the U.S. (and Canada) on February 2nd. Tradition holds that if Punxsutawney Phil, the most famous groundhog, sees his shadow that day when peeking out of his burrow, there will be six more weeks of winter weather. Conversely, a cloudy day portends warmer weather for the rest of winter. Late winter weather, particularly in the Northeast (where about 80 percent of U.S. heating oil is consumed), can affect heating oil consumption and, consequently, expenditures for the residential customer.    » read more »

The Dance Between Crude Oil and Retail Gasoline Prices

February 4, 2009 -- The relationship between crude oil and retail gasoline prices is similar to dancers on the reality show “So You Think You Can Dance.” On that show, the contestants dance with a partner, but also do solo numbers. So, too, do crude oil and retail gasoline prices seemingly move in tandem at times, but at other times seem to be disconnected. What is the relationship between crude oil prices and retail gasoline prices? It’s more complicated than may appear on the surface.    » read more »

January 28, 2009 -- The rapid fall in crude oil proved reserves that began in 1970 has moderated over the past decade, and crude oil proved reserves actually rose by 345 million barrels (2 percent) in 2007, the latest year for which information is available. Proved reserves are the estimated quantity of crude oil that can be produced with reasonable certainty from known reservoirs under current economic and operating conditions.    » read more »

Refinery Yields

“Refinery yield” is the measure analysts use to assess how the breakdown of petroleum products coming from crude or unfinished oils varies over time. Refiners can adjust product yields in response to changing product prices and other market conditions. Yield changes are made by varying how refinery process units are used and the type of crude oil that is used. EIA receives many questions about yields, including how much they may vary, why they add up to greater than 100 percent, and how to estimate yields from weekly data, which does not contain adequate detail to determine refinery yields.    » read more »

WASHINGTON, D.C., July 16, 2008 -- In a Record of Decision issued today, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) announced that it will make land available for oil and gas leasing in the northeast portion of the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPR-A).

“This action sets the stage for a major lease sale this fall. This is welcome news at a time when Americans are paying record prices at the pump,” said C. Stephen Allred, Assistant Secretary for Land and Minerals, in signing the ROD.

At the same lease sale, the BLM also plans to offer land in the northwest portion of the NPR-A.    » read more »

Monte Carlo and Forecasting Hurricanes

The gaming rooms at Monaco’s famous Monte Carlo Casino resonate with people trying their luck at the baccarat, poker, and craps tables. No one knows who will break the bank or who will go home broke. Although wise gamblers carefully consider the odds, or estimates of expected results, when placing their bets, they also understand there’s no such thing as a “sure thing” in a casino.    » read more »

Good, Better, and Best-A Comparison of Weekly, Monthly, and Annual Data

When buyers are confronted with a major purchase, they often weigh their options by considering whether to buy a “good,” “better,” or “best” product. All three have advantages and disadvantages. The same holds true when using Energy Information Administration (EIA) petroleum supply data because analysts have the option of using weekly, monthly, or annual data, depending on their needs.

As highlighted in the recently published article Accuracy of Petroleum Supply Data, oil data collected by the EIA showed an improvement in the accuracy of the 2006 data from initial estimates (weekly), to interim values (monthly), to final values (annual).    » read more »

Memorial Day Gasoline Prices

Despite cool weather along the East Coast over the past several weeks, Memorial Day weekend, the unofficial start to the summer driving season is upon us. Some may interpret recent increases in gasoline prices as yet another manifestation of a long-standing tendency for gasoline prices to rise dramatically in the days before the holiday weekend.

Memorial Day gas prices: DOE chart    » read more »