Heating oil

Tracking Volatile Energy Prices

Energy prices are volatile. They change as market participants adjust their expectations to new information from physical energy markets and markets for energy-related financial derivatives. Futures and options markets are a valuable source of information regarding these changing expectations.    » read more »

Winter Fuels: How Inventories are Stacking Up

September 30, 2009 -- One of the critical factors energy analysts focus on each fall, ahead of the rise in demand for heating fuels, is the pre-winter build-up of fuel inventories. This year, inventories are unusually high for all winter fuels, including distillates (which includes heating oil), natural gas, propane, and coal used for electricity generation.

Current high inventories stem primarily from the recession. As the economic downturn deepened throughout 2008 and 2009, energy demand fell, but supply was relatively slow to respond. As a result, stocks of many fuels were pushed well above typical historical levels.    » read more »

September 16, 2009 -- There's a good chance you've been hearing more about biodiesel lately. This article, the first of several short discussions about biodiesel that will appear in the next few months, lays out some of the basic terminology and qualities associated with this fuel. It also begins to illustrate important factors that vary among biodiesel fuels and fuel blends with petroleum diesel - variations that require fuel suppliers to make adjustments in order to ensure that these fuels perform well.    » read more »

June 3, 2009 -- Every year, typically in the first quarter, EIA releases its Annual Energy Outlook, which provides projections and analyses of U.S. energy supply, demand, and prices through the next 20 to 25 years. The projections are based on results from the EIA’s National Energy Modeling System and include a reference case, plus numerous additional cases examining factors impacting energy markets, and complete documentation.

The reference case is widely used by policy analysts, decision makers, and other energy analysts as a starting point for examining proposed energy and environmental legislation.    » read more »

Renewable Fuels Changes to EIA's Petroleum Surveys

May 28, 2009 -- EIA has recently implemented expanded data collection efforts to better capture ethanol, biodiesel, and other renewable liquid fuel volumes, marking an important milestone in a multi-year effort to address the growing role of renewable fuels. Congress enacted a mandate for the increased use of renewable motor fuels in the Energy Policy Act of 2005. That same law also authorized EIA to collect better data on renewable fuels.

The need for better renewable fuels data became even more important when the mandate for renewable fuel use was significantly expanded by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which sets a target of 36 billion gallons of renewable fuel use by 2022.    » read more »

Springtime Transitions

May is a time of transition as days get warmer, swimming pools open, and new graduates get ready to head out into the world. It is also a time of transition for U.S. fuel markets, as gasoline suppliers prepare for summer driving. This year, May has already brought back the traditional—but lapsed—spring transition in which the average price of regular gasoline in the United States rises above the price of diesel fuel.

U.S. Retail Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Prices    » read more »

Surplus Oil Production Capacity and World Oil Prices

May 13, 2009 -- Last month the National Football League (NFL) held its annual draft. Prior to making their selections, NFL teams evaluated the talent pool by looking at the overall performance each player delivered for his college team, and at specific indicators, such as their time in a 40-yard dash or how much they can bench press, to determine which players might be the best draft picks. In trying to forecast short-term oil prices, it is also important to consider recent market trends along with a range of more specific factors to really understand the total picture.    » read more »

Falling Prices Lead to a Reduction in Domestic Oil and Gas Drilling

May 6, 2009 -- The oil and gas exploration and production business has seen its share of booms and busts over the years. But what exactly happens to drilling for new wells when prices go on a roller coaster ride? The last 16 months are a great example.

At the beginning of 2008, Baker Hughes reported that there were a total of 1774 oil and gas drilling rigs operating in the United States, of which 18 percent were drilling for oil (316 rigs). This rig count represented a continuation of fairly high and stable drilling levels going back to 2006.    » read more »

Accounting for Biodiesel

April 22, 2009 -- Methyl Esters? No, it is not the name of the lead in a John Waters film, or of some gun-toting moll from 1940’s film noir. Methyl esters are more commonly known as biodiesel, a biomass-based fuel that is made from vegetable oils or animal fats. Biodiesel can be used in pure form (B100) or may be blended with petroleum diesel. Biodiesel and blends can be used in most modern diesel engines or burned as heating fuel.    » read more »

April 15, 2009 -- Yesterday, EIA released the April 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), that includes a detailed look at the forecast for transportation fuels during the upcoming summer. This summer driving season, defined as the period between April 1 and September 30, is expected to be very different from last year. Regular-grade motor gasoline retail prices are projected to average $2.23 per gallon this summer, down from $3.81 per gallon last summer.    » read more »

All Eyes on OPEC

Recently, EIA and other oil market forecasters have been paying close attention to how the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is adjusting to lower global oil demand and weaker oil prices brought on by the global economic recession. Crude oil prices are now almost $100 per barrel off their peak level last year, and most forecasters, including EIA, are projecting 2009 global oil demand to be over 1 million barrels per day (bbl/d) lower than in 2008.    » read more »

March 18, 2009 -- The production of non-crude liquids has traditionally been under-appreciated and sometimes even ignored, much like the treatment accorded to a utility infielder who sits on the bench as the superstar who plays third base and bats cleanup receives all of the attention. However, when that third baseman suffers a season-ending injury, the forgotten utility infielder immediately comes to the forefront. With crude oil (the superstar of the liquid fuels market) ailing, non-crude oil liquids have emerged into the limelight as an important component of world oil supply growth.    » read more »

March 11, 2009 -- A lot has changed over the last several months, here in Washington with the new Administration, and across the U.S. and the rest of the world as economic conditions continue to deteriorate. It has been the latter change that has impacted EIA’s short-term global oil market forecast. In the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), just released yesterday, EIA is projecting 2009 global oil demand to be 3 million barrels per day lower than we projected as recently as six months ago, in our September 2008 STEO. Why have we changed our view of 2009 so dramatically in such a short time?    » read more »

The Bakken Formation Helps Increase U.S. Proved Reserves of Oil

This Week In Petroleum for January 28, 2009 noted that North Dakota had the Nation’s third largest increase in proved reserves of crude oil in 2007, 70 million barrels (17 percent). Most of this increase came from development of the Bakken Formation. What is the Bakken Formation and why does it matter?

What is the Bakken Formation?    » read more »

Are Gasoline and Crude Oil Price Patterns Actually Diverging?

Recently, we at EIA have received many inquiries about why gasoline retail prices have been rising compared to the New York Mercantile Exchange’s (NYMEX’s) reported price of crude oil. The national media have also run several prominent stories on this divergence in prices. In particular, EIA’s reported average retail price of regular gasoline in the United States rose from $1.61 to $1.96 between December 29th and February 16th. During the same period, NYMEX’s most reported price for crude oil was volatile, but had no clear upward trend. So what’s going on?    » read more »