How to cut CA's greenhouse gas emissions by 80%

Berkeley Lab has taken a long, hard look at California and come up with a simple, step-by-step recipe for reducing the state's emissions of carbon and other greenhouse gases to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. The recipe is pretty simple, and relies on three primary components: energy efficiency; carbon-free electricity generation; and electrifying vehicles and processes that use oil, gasoline or natural gas.

Here are the three steps:

Step One: Energy efficiency

The scientists found that energy efficiency improvements will net 28 percent of the emissions reductions required to meet California’s goal. The catch, however, is that energy efficiency will have to improve by at least 1.3 percent per year over the next 40 years. This is less than the level California achieved during its 2000-2001 electricity crisis, but it has never been sustained for decades. The scientists found that the largest share of greenhouse gas reductions from energy efficiency comes from the building sector via improvements in building shell, HVAC systems, lighting, and appliances.

Step Two: Make electricity without producing carbon

Another 27 percent reduction in emissions comes from switching to electricity generation technologies that don’t pour carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Renewable energy, nuclear power, and fossil fuel-powered generation coupled with carbon capture and storage technology each has the potential to be the chief electricity resource in California. But they all must overcome technical limitations, and they’re all currently more expensive than conventional power generation.

Step Three: Use electricity instead of carbon-producing fuels

Most direct fossil fuel uses in transport, buildings, and industry must switch to electricity, raising the electricity share of end-use energy from 15 percent today to 55 percent in 2050.

Overall, this nets a 16-percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, the final push needed to achieve an 80-percent reduction below 1990 levels.

The largest share of greenhouse gas reductions from electrification came from transportation. In the study, 70 percent of vehicle miles traveled — including almost all light-duty vehicle miles — are powered by electricity in 2050.

The beauty of these various steps is that they're really not complicated – this is not the Apollo project – nor are they particularly expensive. After an initial ramping-up period during which a fair amount of R&D and infrastructure expenditures will be required, the end result will likely be a lot cheaper for consumers. So hop to it, California. Not to mention the rest of the nation, and the world.