Hillary Clinton Clings to Hope After Narrow Pennsylvania Primary Win

April 23, 2008 -- Senator Hillary Clinton emerged from yesterday's democratic primary election in Pennsylvania with a projected victory margin of roughly 10%, enough to keep her in the race despite the mathematical unlikelihood of winning an overall majority of either pledged delegates or the popular vote.

Senator Barack Obama: Photo by Barack Obama campaign (CC)

Based on CNN projections, Clinton will emerge from the Pennsylvania primary having won 52 pledged delegates to Obama's 46.

According to various sources, Pennsylvania primary results indicate Hillary Clinton received the expected support from older white women and poorly educated, white voters - the "Alabama" sections of Pennsylvania's demographics, as described by former Clinton strategist James Carville. Senator Barack Obama received overwhelming support from better-educated voters, black voters, and young people. The results by demographic are generally consistent with previous primary contests.

Despite the less-than-decisive results in Pennsylvania and a severe fiscal disadvantage against Senator Barack Obama, whose broad-based Internet fundraising successes have vastly exceeded the level of donations from Hillary Clinton's smaller collection of deep-pocketed supporters, sources indicate Hillary Clinton is determined to remain in the race.

Given Hillary Clinton's large deficit against Barack Obama in both pledged delegates and the popular vote, she will have to convince a vast majority of the remaining superdelegates to essentially ignore the overall primary results and instead buy her argument that she would be the best candidate to take on Senator John McCain in the general election.

The current delegate count, as computed by CNN, gives Barack Obama 1,694 total delegates to Clinton's 1,556. Obama currently has 230 superdelegates to Clinton's 254, a gap that has been closing steadily over the past few months as Obama's remarkable success as an initially long-shot candidate has overtaken Clinton's stronger name recognition and more extensive connections with Washington insiders.

According to New York Times calculations, 231 superdelegates have yet to express a preference. Clinton will have to win over nearly two thirds of these in order to secure the nomination, barring the unlikely event of landslide victories in all the remaining primaries.

Current polls indicate virtual ties in a hypothetical matchup between Hillary Clinton and John McCain, and nearly the same in an Obama-McCain race. A "poll of polls" by the web site RealClearPolitics shows an average lead of 0.3% for McCain against Clinton, and a 1.2% advantage for Obama over McCain.

An April 20 Gallup poll indicates national support of 49% to 42% for Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton.

The remaining primary elections, with respective delegates at stake, are as follows:

May 3: Guam (9 delegates)
May 6: Indiana (84 delegates), North Carolina (134 delegates)
May 13: West Virginia (39 delegates)
May 20: Kentucky (60 delegates), Oregon (65 delegates)
June 1: Puerto Rice (63 delegates)
June 3: Montana (24 delegates), South Dakota (23 delegates)

Finally, the Democratic National Convention will be held in Denver, August 25-28, 2008.

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