South Turnout Rises in South Carolina Primary

Washington, DC - 01/27/2008 - Nineteen percent of eligible South Carolina citizens under the age of 30 participated in the South Carolina primaries, according to preliminary analysis by CIRCLE (The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement). The primaries attracted an estimated 120,000 young voters to the polls.

The results from both Democratic and Republican primaries in South Carolina punctuate the findings of national focus groups that CIRCLE conducted last fall. The research showed that college students are deeply concerned about issues, involved personally as volunteers, and ready to consider voting. But they want political leaders to be positive, to address real problems, and to call on all Americans to be constructively involved.

Comparisons to other caucuses and primaries must be made with caution, because turnout is affected by the date of the primaries and by the nature of the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns, which are different in every state.

Because there is no actual count of the number of votes cast by young people in the South Carolina primaries, we can only estimate their level of participation. Our turnout estimates are based on day-after vote tallies reported by the media, the share of voters who are young calculated by the National Election Pool exit/entrance polls, and an estimate of the eligible voting population obtained from the Census Current Population Survey (CPS). The 2008 voter turnout rate may rise as more votes are tallied. (The day-after vote tally does not include such votes as absentee ballots and provisional ballots.)

As a result, our 2008 turnout rate likely underestimates the level of participation in the 2008 South Carolina primaries.

Youth turnout increased in the Iowa caucuses where the youth turnout tripled compared to 2004, rising from four percent of eligible citizens in 2004 to 13 percent in 2008. In New Hampshire, the youth vote soared to 43 percent, up from 28 percent in 2000.

This increase in youth turnout in the early primary season continues a trend observed in other elections since 2000. In the 2006 congressional elections, the voter turnout rate among 18-to 29-year-olds increased by three percentage points compared to the previous congressional election of 2002. And in the 2004 presidential election, the national youth voter turnout rate rose 9 percentage points compared to 2000, reaching 49 percent. In 2004, under-30-year-olds were registered to vote at the highest rate in 30 years.

“Younger Americans are doing their part, registering to vote, paying more attention to issues and politics, and now turning out in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina,” said CIRCLE Director Peter Levine. “Now it is up to political leaders to reach out to younger Americans and run campaigns that address their issues and concerns.”

Definitions

Youth: For the purpose of the South Carolina primary, we define “youth” as citizens between the ages of 18 and 29 on January 19 and 26 of 2008.

Number of youth who voted: An estimate of how many youth participated.

Youth share primary participants: An estimate of the number of young people who participated in the primaries as a percentage of the number of all people who participated in the primaries.

Youth turnout rate: An estimate of the number of young people who participated in the primaries as a percentage of the total number of young people who were eligible to participate in either primary.

The youth turnout rate is the best indicator of how young Americans are engaging in the political process. The other statistics—the sheer number of youth participants and the youth share of the electorate—can change because of factors unrelated to youth engagement.

Source: Pew

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